A clear US dollar selling bias emerged last week as US President Donald Trump’s Greenland tariff threats triggered a ‘sell-America’ trade, amid concerns his combative approach to foreign policy could alienate US allies and trade partners.
Last week’s key rate movements
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GBP/EUR – Unchanged on the week
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GBP/USD – Up 2% on the week
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EUR/USD – Up 1.8% on the week
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AUD/USD – Up 3.1% on the week
Pound (GBP)
Notable UK economic releases are in short supply this week, which may leave the pound (GBP) exposed to wider market trends. A cautious mood could see Sterling come under pressure.
Euro (EUR)
The publication of the Eurozone’s latest GDP figures will be in the spotlight for EUR investors this week. A robust growth print at the end of 2025 may help underpin the euro (EUR) at the end of the session.
US dollar (USD)
Assuming the Federal Reserve leaves interest rates on hold as forecast this week, the focus for USD investors will be on the expected announcement of who will replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when he steps down in May. If Trump’s nominee is seen as favouring a more dovish approach to policy, the US dollar (USD) may extend its recent losses.
Australian dollar (AUD)
The publication of Australia’s consumer price index could catapult the Australian dollar (AUD) higher this week, if an acceleration in inflation stokes bets for an impending interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
South African rand (ZAR)
Movement in the South African rand (ZAR) is set to be driven by domestic inflation figures this week as ZAR investors look for more clues on how the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will shape monetary policy this year.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian dollar (CAD) may catch bids this week in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) latest interest rate decision. While no policy changes are expected from the BoC this month, the ‘loonie’ may firm if the bank reiterates that interest rates are at their neutral level.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Movement in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) will be primarily influenced by market risk dynamics this week, but could also benefit from a small bump if data shows that domestic business confidence improved last month.
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