The US dollar struck new multi-year lows last week as US President Donald Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ stoked fresh US debt concerns. At the same time, the pound slumped in response to dovish remarks from a Bank of England (BoE) policymaker.
Last week’s key rate movements
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GBP/EUR – Down 0.9% on the week
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GBP/USD – Down 0.5% on the week
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EUR/USD – Up 0.5% on the week
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AUD/USD – Up 0.4% on the week
Pound (GBP)
The UK’s latest GDP figures are likely to act as the primary catalyst for movement in the pound (GBP) this week. If May’s figures report the UK economy returned to growth, it could help shore up Sterling sentiment.
Euro (EUR)
Lacklustre German export data could act as a headwind for the euro (EUR) this week. However, the primary focus for EUR investors will be on whether the EU and the US can finalise a trade deal before Trump’s tariff deadline.
US dollar (USD)
Trump’s tariff deadline looms large this week. USD investors will be keeping an eye on trade headlines as the potential return of the President’s reciprocal tariffs risks infusing fresh volatility into the US dollar (USD).
Australian dollar (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver its latest interest rate decision this week, with another cut likely to weigh on the Australian dollar (AUD).
South African rand (ZAR)
In the absence of any notable domestic data, the South African rand (ZAR) is expected to be influenced by wider market trends this week, with renewed tariff jitters likely to dampen ZAR demand.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Canada’s latest jobs report is likely to weigh on the Canadian dollar (CAD) later this week, as unemployment is forecast to have remained at a near four-year high in June.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Movement in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) is likely to be closely linked to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate decision this week. No policy changes are expected from the bank this month, with the ‘kiwi’ likely to appreciate if the bank also signals rates have reached their neutral level.
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