Investors are bracing for another volatile week for the currency market as tensions in the Middle East flare and the US-Iran ceasefire looks increasingly fragile.
Last week's key rate movements
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GBP/EUR – Up 0.3% on the week
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GBP/USD – Up 0.3% on the week
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EUR/USD – Unchanged on the week
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AUD/USD – Up 0.6% on the week
Pound (GBP)
UK political uncertainty may pose a major risk to the pound (GBP) this week, with a defeat for Labour in the local elections potentially triggering fresh calls for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down.
Euro (EUR)
Germany's latest industrial figures will likely be the focus for EUR investors this week. Any signs of weakness in the country's most important sector could limit demand for the euro (EUR).
US dollar (USD)
While US-Iran tensions will remain the primary catalyst for the US dollar this week, the latest US payroll figures will also be a key focus for investors. The data could trigger some weakness in the US dollar (USD) at the end of the week if it points to a slowdown in the US labour market last month.
Australian dollar (AUD)
A widely expected interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has so far offered little support for the Australian dollar (AUD) this week, with further softness likely later in the week if the mood remains cautious and Australia’s trade figures disappoint.
South African rand (ZAR)
The South African rand (ZAR) is likely to be driven by broader market trends this week in the absence of any notable domestic data, with a cautious mood linked to events in the Middle East potentially dragging the emerging-market currency lower.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
While high oil prices may help to buoy the Canadian dollar (CAD) this week, this strength may be tested later in the session if Canada’s employment data disappoints.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
New Zealand will also publish its latest jobs report this week, with the New Zealand dollar (NZD) poised to slide if unemployment continued to climb in Q1.
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