Following dramatic events in Venezuela over the weekend, we are likely to see heightened volatility in the first full week of 2026, with a dash for safe-haven assets likely to prop up demand for the US dollar.
Last week’s key rate movements
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GBP/EUR – Unchanged on the week
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GBP/USD – Down 0.3% on the week
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EUR/USD – Down 0.3% on the week
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AUD/USD – Down 0.3% on the week
Pound (GBP)
UK economic data is in short supply this week, the only notable release being December’s finalised services PMI. If it’s revised lower, similarly to last month’s manufacturing PMI, it’s likely to apply pressure to the pound (GBP).
Euro (EUR)
The release of the Eurozone’s latest consumer price index will act as a key catalyst of movement for the euro (EUR) this week. If December’s preliminary CPI figures report another moderation of inflation, it could apply modest pressure to the single currency.
US dollar (USD)
The US dollar (USD) looks poised to rise this week, as events in Venezuela over the weekend underpin demand for safe-haven assets. However, the US dollar’s upside potential may be tested if Friday’s payroll figures disappoint.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Australia will also release its latest CPI figures this week. November's data may drag on the Australian dollar (AUD) as an expected cooling of inflation is likely to weaken Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike bets.
South African rand (ZAR)
Movement in the South African rand (ZAR) is likely to be tied to market risk dynamics this week amid the absence of any notable domestic data releases, potentially exposing the emerging-market currency to losses amid the caution that follows events in Latin America.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Canada will publish its latest jobs report this week. If December’s figures report unemployment continued to climb, it will likely apply pressure to the Canadian dollar (CAD) at the end of the session.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Domestic data is thin on the ground this week, leaving movement in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) to be driven by wider market trends. A cautious market mood could see the ‘kiwi’ face pressure throughout the session.
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