The US dollar was centre stage last week, with the currency soaring to new multi-month highs through the first half of the session, before crashing back to earth as the session ended on the back of abysmal US payroll figures.
Last week's key rate movements
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GBP/EUR – Up 0.2% on the week
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GBP/USD – Down 1.2% on the week
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EUR/USD – Down 1.3% on the week
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AUD/USD – Down 1.4% on the week
Pound (GBP)
The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its latest interest rate decision later this week. Market consensus is for a 25bps rate cut, which is likely to weigh on the pound (GBP), particularly if the bank hints at another cut before the end of 2025.
Euro (EUR)
Data from Germany's manufacturing sector may act as the primary catalyst for the euro (EUR) this week. A solid increase in factory orders and industrial production in June could help to bolster EUR sentiment.
US dollar (USD)
The US dollar (USD) could face headwinds this week as the unease surrounding US President Donald Trump's firing of the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics looks to revive the USD risk premium, while bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September continue to mount.
Australian dollar (AUD)
Australia's latest trade figures may help to underpin the Australian dollar (AUD) this week if export growth rebounded as forecast in June.
South African rand (ZAR)
The South African rand (ZAR) will likely be driven by external catalysts this week in the absence of any notable domestic data. Concerns over trade in the wake of Trump's new tariffs could weigh on the rand.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
Canada's latest jobs data could place pressure on the Canadian dollar (CAD) later this week as a forecast rise in unemployment last month may stoke bets for another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada (BoC).
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Movement in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) will also be tied to domestic jobs data this week, with a suspected rise in unemployment in the second quarter likely to apply pressure to the 'kiwi'.
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