Pound (GBP) supported by risk-positive trade

The increasingly risk-sensitive pound (GBP) rose against its safer rivals yesterday, while slipping against riskier assets, as a cheery market mood prevailed.

However, GBP was also somewhat muted ahead of today’s by-election in the Greater Manchester constituency of Gorton and Denton, which is seen as a key test for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

Sterling may be subdued today as UK economic data remains thin on the ground and voters take to the polls in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

Euro (EUR) undermined by weaker German data

The euro (EUR) was mixed yesterday, although it slipped against stronger peers after an unexpected deterioration in German consumer confidence heading into March.

The latest GfK consumer confidence index printed at -24.7, down from -24.2 and missing forecasts for an improvement to -23.1

Turning to today, the latest Eurozone economic sentiment index is in focus. A forecast improvement could support the euro.

US dollar (USD) softens amid risk-on mood

The safe-haven US dollar (USD) weakened against its more risk-sensitive rivals yesterday as a cheery market mood undermined the ‘greenback’.

However, a slight adjustment in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations spared USD from further losses, with traders pushing back bets for a Fed rate cut.

The latest US initial jobless claims figure could impact USD today. Could an expected rise in claims put pressure on the US dollar?

Canadian dollar (CAD) pressured as oil prices ease

The crude-linked Canadian dollar (CAD) trended broadly lower yesterday amid a slight decline in oil prices.

Oil price movements could drive CAD exchange rates today, with investors likely keeping an eye on the US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva.

Australian dollar (AUD) buoyed by upbeat sentiment

The Australian dollar (AUD) held near recent highs overnight as an upbeat mood underpinned the risk-sensitive ‘Aussie’.

New Zealand dollar (NZD) finds fleeting gains despite weak data

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) initially rose overnight amid the risk-on mood, despite an unexpected decline in domestic business confidence in February, although NZD slipped back this morning.


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