Pound (GBP) ticks higher ahead of autumn budget 

The pound (GBP) firmed yesterday amid some last-minute repricing ahead of the UK’s autumn budget

News that Chancellor Rachel Reeves would not launch a tax raid on banks seemed to support Sterling, while a small recovery in the bond market also cheered GP investors.  

Expect to see significant volatility in the pound today as investors react to the budget. While the pound is poised to fall if markets are unimpressed, there is a chance of a short-term relief rally for Sterling as the recent uncertainty comes to an end. 

Euro (EUR) climbs amid Ukraine peace hopes 

The euro (EUR) rose against many of its rivals yesterday amid ongoing optimism around peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war. 

These hopes helped the euro shrug off some lacklustre German data, which confirmed that the Eurozone’s largest economy stalled in the third quarter. 

Any further developments on the Ukraine peace proposal could impact EUR again today. If the tone remains positive, the common currency may strengthen. 

US dollar (USD) weakens as Fed rate cut bets mount 

The US dollar (USD) fell yesterday as new US data fuelled bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. 

The ADP weekly employment change report showed that private US employers cut 13,500 jobs per week on average from mid-October to early November. Meanwhile, US retail sales slowed far more than expected in September. 

USD could face headwinds today, if the latest American data prints as forecast. US durable goods orders are set to have slowed rapidly in September, while new jobless claims are expected to have risen last week. 

Canadian dollar (CAD) softens in tandem with oil 

The commodity-linked Canadian dollar (CAD) stumbled yesterday as crude prices continued to fall amid the optimism around a Ukraine peace plan. 

With Canadian data still absent from the calendar today, oil prices could continue driving CAD. If crude extends its downside, the ‘loonie’ may also face headwinds. 

Australian dollar (AUD) climbs as inflation rises 

The Australian dollar (AUD) rallied overnight after Australian inflation unexpectedly rose from 3.6% to 3.8% in October, fuelling hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) bets. 

New Zealand dollar (NZD) as RBNZ rates near neutral levels 

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) leapt higher last night following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision. Although the RBNZ cut rates, it signalled that it may be at the end of its easing cycle. 


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