Weekly currency forecast: US election to trigger dramatic swings in the US dollar?
Philip McHugh November 4th 2024 - 2 minute read
Traders are bracing for another busy session this week, with the US presidential election and interest rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve set to keep investors on their toes.
Pound (GBP)
The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. With a 25bps rate cut widely priced in, any resulting movement in the pound (GBP) is likely to be linked to the bank’s forward guidance. If the BoE signals another cut in December may be on the table, we are likely to see Sterling fall.
Euro (EUR)
The euro (EUR) may enjoy further support this week, if Germany’s latest industrial data reports activity in the country’s vital factory sector rebounded at the end of the third quarter.
US dollar (USD)
The US dollar (USD) may see significant movement this week, with the US presidential election potentially triggering volatility in mid-week trade, before being swiftly followed by the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision on Thursday.
Australian dollar (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest interest rate decision will act as a key catalyst of movement for the Australian dollar this week. No policy changes are expected this month, but the ‘Aussie’ is poised to fall if the bank’s forward guidance suggests that rate cuts are beginning to be discussed.
South African rand (ZAR)
Movement in the South African rand (ZAR) is likely to be tied to market sentiment this week amid the absence of any notable domestic data. Any risk aversion could see the rand come under pressure.
Canadian dollar (CAD)
The Canadian dollar (CAD) may come under pressure later this week as Canada’s latest jobs figures are expected to report unemployment ticked higher in October.
New Zealand dollar (NZD)
With domestic data in short supply, movement in the New Zealand dollar (NZD) is likely to be driven by wider market movements this week.
Written by
Philip McHugh