Eurozone to publish shock trade deficit?

• Trade figures may pressure EUR
• Eurozone construction expected to rally
• RBA minutes in focus

EUR poised to slide on trade figures

The Eurozone will publish its latest trade balance figures later this morning and economists forecast they could make for some gloomy reading.

Analysts suggest that January’s data will see the Eurozone post a €6.5bn deficit at the start of the year, down from a €25.4bn surplus at the end of 2017.

This would be only the second deficit in four years and could prompt significant losses for the single currency.
The figures will also likely do little to dissuade suggestions that momentum in the Eurozone may be slowing this year, which may further dent the appeal of EUR.

Eurozone construction output expected to climb

The euro may be able to limit its potential losses this morning however as the Eurozone publishes its latest construction output figures.

Economists forecast that construction output growth will have climbed to 1.5% in January after expectedly plummeting from 2.9% to 0.5% in December.

This will be a significant improvement on output at the same point last year, when it contracted a staggering 5.6% in January 2017, and will see it remaining well above the long-term average of -0.5%.

RBA minutes to rattle AUD?

The Australian Dollar may slide in overnight trade today as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes from its latest policy meeting.

The RBA voted to leave interest rates unchanged during its most recent meeting earlier this month, in a move that had been widely forecast by markets.

In its accompanying policy statement the bank made it clear that it also expected this to remain the case for some time as improvements in both employment and inflation were likely to remain ‘gradual’.

While the possibility of a rate hike this year now seems extremely slim, investors will still be keen to learn of the policymakers outlook for other areas of the economy, particularly wage growth, with any concerns that wages may remain subdued likely to pressure AUD.

Upcoming Data

Monday, 19 March, 2018
10:00                     EUR Trade Balance 
10:00                     EUR Construction Output  

Tuesday, 20 March, 2018
00:30                     AUD RBA Minutes