All eyes on durable goods

Currencies Direct June 25th 2014 - < 1 minute read

A lacklustre European economic calendar offers little volatility in the major currencies. Another round of scheduled commentary from ECB officials is perhaps most notable, with Governing Council members Carlos Costa, Luis Maria Linde and Jens Weidmann all set to speak. Investors will be looking for clues about a forthcoming ECB asset purchase program, scanning officials' remarks for any indications about the strategy approach likely to be implemented and timing of the effort's commencement. It ought to be noted ample prior to commentary from ECB policymakers that has failed to drive the euro, with EURUSD oscillating near the 1.36 figure.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to US newsflow once again. The final revision of first-quarter GDP figures is expected to further downgrade the economy's performance, revealing a 1.8% contraction. That compares with a previously reported 1% decline. While hardly supportive, the outcome may not translate into downward pressure on the US dollar, considering the now widely-publicised slump in the first three months of the year that has clearly failed to derail the US Federal Reserve's effort to taper quantitative easing asset purchases.

With that in mind, investors may opt to focus on more timely bits of scheduled event risk, with the spotlight on May's durable goods orders report, June's service-sector and composite PMI figures. The trend in US economic data outcomes marked an important turning point relative to consensus forecasts in early April and has broadly (if unevenly) continued to improve since. More of the same may help engineer a re-evaluation of US dollar weakness following last week's FOMC announcement, sending the benchmark unit higher.

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