Markets subdued ahead of US economic data.

Markets are to move toward
fundamentals as the forthcoming week is set to be one which is
packed with economic data. With softer than expected non-farm
payroll data and a subdued Michigan consumer confidence index from
the US last week, as well as debt write offs from top Chinese banks
to avoid default, focus now turns toward the US retail sales
figures. With reports that retail sales stalled in September –
mainly due to the slump in the automobile industry – a weak figure
could exacerbate the dip in the Greenback, which managed to claw
back some of its losses on Friday after a rise in durable goods
orders. We expect home sales data later today and the Dallas
Manufacturing Business index.

Last week, the widely expected
positive German business confidence data came out lower than
anticipated as the euro corrected slightly. However, the pullback
was short lived with further US data leading to the euro climbing
back up to the 1.38 EURUSD level. We expect Italian Business
confidence data out later today as well as a German 12-month bond
auction.

Sterling remained fairly stable
last week, despite GDP data coming in as expected at 0.8 per cent
QoQ and 1.5 per cent YoY. Sterling currently stands at 1.6180
against the Greenback and 1.1720 against the euro. A fairly quiet
day for Sterling today in terms of economic data as we expect the
release of the CBI Distributive Trades Survey, with more focus on
mortgage approvals and lending figures to be released tomorrow.