Light day as America enjoys public holiday

It was reported over the weekend that the full extent of cuts
still have not been agreed in Greece and with no availability for a
two-year extension the Greeks are bringing the decision down to the
wire…again. Without the next tranche it has been reported that
Greece could run out of money by the end of November, which could
cause the euro crisis to poke its head above the water again. Data
out today, German Industrial Production being the most notable and
expected to show a large fall compared to last month to come in at
-0.8% from 1.3% in August.  This coming in after German Trade
balance came in much better than expected at 18.3bln from consensus
of 15.3bln.

Some good news from the UK with job creation figures showing an
increase, finally, however they are only temporary and seasonal
jobs that are showing growth with permanent roles remaining
stagnant. Light data week coming this week for GBP with markets
keen to see non-EU trade balance and total trade balance for any
positive sign of growth to reduce the government deficit.

It is Columbus Day in America today, on Friday EUR/USD came
under selling pressure as investors sought to get out of positions
with GBP/EUR also trading below 1.24 and GBP/USD well below 1.61
ahead of the holiday. Trading should remain stagnant today with
mostly range trading but look out for any political statements to
show any large moves.  Non-farm payroll data on Friday came in
exactly in line with expectations at +114,000, a good number but
not bullish enough to push the markets further into risk.

For the week ahead we have Mario Draghi speaking on Tuesday,
Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures also on
Tuesday. We also have German, French and Spanish CPI data on
Thursday and USD Trade balance and initial jobless claims to finish
the week on Friday.