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Weekly roundup: Monetary policy meetings drive AUD and NZD exchange rates

currency-newsWeekly roundup: Monetary policy meetings drive AUD and NZD exchange rates
The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar found themselves reacting to domestic monetary policy announcements last week. Data this week is mostly low-impact, so AUD and NZD could struggle to find a solid footing.

Both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced their latest monetary policy decisions.

The RBA held interest rates at 1.50% and left its economic forecasts largely unchanged for the coming years, as well as indicating that there are unlikely to be any adjustments to monetary policy for some time.

The RBNZ, meanwhile, upped its inflation forecast, causing markets to bring forward their expectations for when the next interest rate hike could be delivered.

However, a -3.5% slump in dairy prices at the latest global auction weighed on the near-term outlook for the New Zealand economy.

There is plenty of Australian sentiment data set for release this week, which will give a better picture of how households and the private sector feel about the economy.

Tonight’s ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index will be followed tomorrow by NAB business conditions surveys and the Westpac consumer confidence results.

The Q3 wage price index will show whether pay growth accelerated; something that would be well-received as it would improve the inflation outlook.

Things pick up on Thursday with the consumer inflation expectation, employment change and unemployment rate data. Another sizeable increase in employment is expected, so the Australian dollar could find some support here.

Meanwhile there is barely any New Zealand data of note released this week, with the most impactful release being Thursday’s Business NZ performance of manufacturing PMI.
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Phil joined the corporate foreign exchange department in 2000, and initially worked as a Senior Executive Dealer on the private client desk. In 2007, Phil moved to the corporate dealing desk as a corporate dealer and now oversees the corporate trading desk. Phil helps to manage the trading activity of the dealing desk and also works with a portfolio of corporate clients to help with their foreign exchange and risk management needs. Phil has attained FSA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertITM).

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