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Weekly roundup: Euro starts week on mixed form

currency-newsWeekly roundup: Euro starts week on mixed form
The euro has started the week on mixed form, despite positive news from the weekend’s French legislative elections. President Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche! party and its Democratic Movement allies have secured 351 seats in Parliament; well above the 289 needed for a majority. While this has cheered the markets, analysts are worried that the low turnout figure of around 43% could suggest Macron will face an uphill struggle in keeping the electorate happy.

Suggestions that the UK government would aim for a less-severe form of Brexit helped buoy the euro at the beginning of last week, as a ‘Hard Brexit’ has the potential to damage the Eurozone economy. Additionally, anticipation of the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) midweek interest rate decision was pushing up demand for EUR as USD was weakening.

The Greek debt crisis once again returned to the fore for much of last week, with Greece desperately needing to persuade Eurogroup to unlock its next tranche of bailout funding. Athens needs around €7.5 billion to repay maturing debt in July or face the risk of credit default.

As usual, the parties have been in deadlock for many weeks over whether the government has implemented the mandated austerity measures and on the issue of debt relief. Also as usual, a deal has been reached, but only at the last minute in order to avoid disaster. The news that Greece would indeed receive the funds in time to repay creditors - mainly the European Central Bank (ECB) - pushed the euro higher on Friday.

Brexit talks are likely to weigh on the euro as well as the pound this week. Data is largely thin on the ground, which could leave markets with little to go on.

However, Thursday and Friday hold some impactful releases. The ECB publishes its latest Economic Bulletin on Thursday morning, while Eurozone consumer confidence figures follow in the afternoon.

On Friday, a slew of PMIs for June will give an indication of how the Eurozone economy was faring as it entered the final month of the second quarter.
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Phil joined the corporate foreign exchange department in 2000, and initially worked as a Senior Executive Dealer on the private client desk. In 2007, Phil moved to the corporate dealing desk as a corporate dealer and now oversees the corporate trading desk. Phil helps to manage the trading activity of the dealing desk and also works with a portfolio of corporate clients to help with their foreign exchange and risk management needs. Phil has attained FSA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertITM).

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