The Australian monetary policy outlook and New Zealand’s political outlook were in focus last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) doesn’t seem to want to join in with the global shift towards more optimistic projections for interest rates, while markets are today coming to terms with the fact New Zealand has been left with a hung parliament after the weekend’s vote.
GBP/EUR advanced to €1.1017, GBP/USD remained in the region of $1.3190, GBP/AUD hit a high of AU$1.6466, GBP/NZD fluctuated around NZ$1.840, and GBP/CAD retraced some of its gains to trade around C$1.5960.
What impact will UK inflation data have on the pound? Keep reading to find out…
What’s been happening?
The week got off to a fairly quiet start in terms of exciting data releases, with little on the economic calendar to cause a stir in the currency market.
However, Sterling did derive some support from the expectation that the EU repeal bill would pass its first parliamentary vote, despite opposition from the Labour Party.
And the bill did pass, being backed by 326 votes to 290.
According to the BBC; ‘Prime Minister Theresa May welcomed the Commons vote in the early hours of Tuesday morning, saying the bill offered "certainty and clarity" - but Labour described it as an "affront to parliamentary democracy”.
Having cleared the second reading stage, the bill will now face more attempts to change it with Conservative MPs believed to have tabled new amendments.’
Overnight the New Zealand dollar was little changed after the NAB Business Conditions index improved from 14 to 15 while the Business Confidence measure slid from 12 to 5.
What’s coming up?
The UK’s inflation figures for August will be the main cause of GBP exchange rate movement today.
If inflation rises by 0.5% on the month and 2.8% on the year – as forecast – the report might have a modest impact on Bank of England (BoE) rate hike expectations and give Sterling a lift.
Meanwhile, a speech from European Central Bank Vice President Vítor Constâncio may inspire EUR fluctuations later in the day.
Investors will also be looking ahead to tomorrow’s German inflation data and UK employment figures.
It is expected that the German inflation report will confirm a month-on-month reading of 0.1% and year-on-year result of 1.8%.
If British wage growth falls short it will heighten concerns of a slowdown in the all-important services sector and put the pound under pressure.
Phil joined the corporate foreign exchange department in 2000, and initially worked as a Senior Executive Dealer on the private client desk. In 2007, Phil moved to the corporate dealing desk as a corporate dealer and now oversees the corporate trading desk. Phil helps to manage the trading activity of the dealing desk and also works with a portfolio of corporate clients to help with their foreign exchange and risk management needs. Phil has attained FSA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertITM).
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