The pound retreated on Thursday after the Bank of England (BoE) struck a more cautious tone than expected following its latest policy meeting.
Meanwhile, the pound is trading in a narrow range this morning, with GBP/EUR buoyed at €1.1643 and GBP/USD flat at $1.3840. GBP/CAD is rangebound at C$1.7538, while GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD hold steady at AU$1.8039 and NZ$1.9385, respectively.
Looking ahead, the latest US consumer price index will be a key catalyst of movement this week as an acceleration of inflation could send US Treasury yields shooting higher.
What’s been happening?The US dollar caught some notable bids at the end of last week’s session, with the dollar index soaring to its best levels so far this year as the latest US non-farm payroll release printed well above market expectations.
February’s figures reported the US economy added a massive 379,000 jobs, surging from 166,000 in January and far outpacing expectations for a modest 182,000 expansion.
This strong upswing in the US dollar came at the expense of the euro, with the negative correlation between the pairing denting EUR exchange rates.
However, the euro’s losses were capped somewhat by the publication of Germany’s latest factory order figures as order growth beat expectations in January.
The pound, meanwhile, struggled for direction on Friday, as ongoing optimism over the success of the UK’s vaccination programme was offset by concerns that recent coronavirus statistics are showing signs that the rate of decline is slowing across the UK.
What’s coming up?Kicking off this week’s session was the publication of Germany’s latest industrial production figures.
The release sees the euro already face some headwinds this morning after reporting factory output unexpectedly slumped at the start of the year.
Looking further ahead, the focus will be on the latest US consumer price index. Economists are forecasting February’s CPI release will report domestic inflation accelerated, potentially driving another upswing in US Treasury yields and therefore the US dollar.
Meanwhile, the focus for GBP investors this week will be on the UK’s latest GDP figures. January’s monthly release is expected to show a sharp drop in economic growth as a result of the latest lockdown measures, which could translate into some pressure on the pound later in the week.
Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure
Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)