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Bounce or break for USD/JPY?

This week the dollar to Japanese yen peaked at high rates, but with talk of helicopter money continuing, will it be bounce or break for the pair?
 
Hints of further policy easing within the market has contributed to today’s positive bias, and stronger-than-expected quarterly results from JPMorgan. Further to this, there is a rebound in oil futures, a risk-on posture and strong industry leadership from the financial, technology and industrial sectors.
 
GBP
 
Following a sharp rise during Thursday’s session, the pound to euro rate held above the 1.20 level. Over the past week, the GBP has been in high demand but is predicted by foreign exchange investors to settle as the end of the week approaches.
 
This week the UK saw the appointment of former home secretary Theresa May as prime minister, which is likely to steady the pound after much uncertainty in the wake of Brexit. However unless major political support materialises, poor construction output statistics are likely to cause a slow end to the week.
 
Despite this, the GBP/EUR pair rose to a best conversion rate of 1.21, in comparison to lows of 1.15 last week.
 
EUR
 
As of late, the euro exchange rate has been unsteady for investors, with today’s eurozone data fairly limited and the Bastille Day terror attacks limiting any data releases from France.
 
Meanwhile, Finland’s inflation rate has proved to have risen on the year in June, but continued flat on the year, whilst Ireland awaits its base and annual inflation statistics.
 
Before the market closes later today, the euro will likely be influenced by a number of domestic data releases and the majority of these concern inflation in the single currency in June. The eurozone trade balance will also be revealed later today, with forecasts expecting a significant fall from 27.5 billion to 18.9 billion.
 
USD
 
This week the US dollar failed to hold onto recent gains against the AUD, despite a mix of Australian data, with investors still analysing the chances of an imminent Fed rate hike as limited.
 
Investors believe that domestic sentiment was not overly bearish, which added further downside pressure to the USD/AUD exchange rate.
 
On a positive note, an unexpected sharp slump in Chinese imports meant the US dollar strengthened, as safe-haven demand surged. If European and Chinese risk-off concerns reassert, it is possible that the USD/JPY rate could move to 90.
 
JPY
 
As a result of the European Union (EU) referendum result causing much fluctuation in the market, the Japanese yen was pushed to the forefront as a safe currency. It is believed that much investment in the JPY is coming from Japanese sources that include exporters, life insurers and pension funds.
 
Even a huge supplementary budget and further Bank of Japan (BoJ) easing will not stop the strength of the JPY emerging from the current global environment.

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