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Will US consumer optimism and job openings JOLT the dollar higher?

business-articlesWill US consumer optimism and job openings JOLT the dollar higher?
  • Eurozone trade figures may support EUR
  • US consumer sentiment expected to remain strong
  • Robust job opening figures may lift USD
EUR may strengthen on Eurozone trade figures

The euro looks poised to strengthen today as the Eurozone releases its latest trade balance figures later in the morning.

Current forecasts suggest that the Eurozone will publish a €20.2bn surplus in February, up from €16.7bn at the same point in 2017.

Markets will also be looking to see whether exports rebounded in February, with EUR investors hopeful that this will help contribute to a strong GDP report in the first quarter.

US consumers to remain broadly optimistic?

The University of Michigan will publish the results from its latest consumer sentiment survey later this afternoon, possibly strengthening the US dollar if they print in line with expectations.

Economists expect April’s preliminary reading will see the US consumer sentiment index come in at 100.5 as it slips back from the 14-year high of 101.4 struck in February.

The upbeat sentiment will likely be a reflection of the low levels of US unemployment and the expectation that wages will start to pick up in the coming months.

However some analysts warn the index could print lower than expected should sentiment have been more negatively impacted by the trade uncertainty prompted by Trump’s tariff plans, something that could drag on the US dollar.

JOLTS job figures may strengthen USD

Any potential gains for USD may be further bolstered this afternoon if the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) figures print as robustly as expected.

After striking a record high of 6.312m at the start of the year analysts forecast the number of US jobs opening’s will have seen a modest fall to 6.173m in February.

Another robust reading is likely to lend strength to the US dollar as it helps to also underscore the strength of the US labour market and adds support to suggestions that wage growth may pick up as employers compete to attack qualified workers.

This in turn may add to speculation that the door could be open for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates up to three additional times this year.

Upcoming Data

Friday, 13 April, 2018
10:00                     EUR Trade Balance
15:00                     USD Consumer Sentiment
15:00                     USD JOLTS Job Openings
 
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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