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Will the pound stumble this week?

business-articlesWill the pound stumble this week?
  • Stalling Brexit talks weigh on pound
  • Euro stalls as signs point towards weaker German inflation
  • Odds of further Fed easing limit US dollar demand
Industrial trends slump set to dent pound
GBP exchange rates slipped ahead of the weekend as Brexit talks showed signs of breaking down.
As Downing Street insisted that the details of its new proposals would not be shared with delegates from the other EU member states the prospect of a deal appeared to diminish.
Confidence in the health of the UK economy could deteriorate this morning if September’s CBI industrial trends orders index weakens as forecast.
Fresh evidence of a slowdown within the UK manufacturing sector could expose the pound to downside pressure. 
Euro braces for Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs
Friday’s German producer price index figures pointed towards weakening inflationary pressure and undermined the euro.
Demand for the single currency could weaken further this morning if the latest raft of Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs disappoint.
Evidence that economic activity across the currency union continued to slow at the end of the third quarter may leave EUR exchange rates trending lower.
US dollar vulnerable to signs of manufacturing slowdown
As markets remain wary of the prospect of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts the US dollar fell out of favour ahead of the weekend.
USD exchange rates could shed further ground this afternoon on the back of August’s Chicago Fed national activity index.
Additional signs of a manufacturing sector slowdown would be US dollar-negative given the already cautious outlook of Fed policymakers.
However, if the index returns to positive territory this may offer USD exchange rates a rallying point.
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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