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Will the euro be driven lower by trade data?

business-articlesWill the euro be driven lower by trade data?
- Euro under pressure ahead of Eurozone trade data
- US dollar falters as production contracts
- Stronger UK retail sales benefit pound
Risk of German recession weighs on euro
Increasing anxiety over the prospect of a potential German recession kept the euro under pressure yesterday.
EUR exchange rates could shed further ground if June’s Eurozone trade balance narrows as forecast.
The surplus is expected to narrow from 20.2 billion to 18.6 billion, reflecting the drag that increased global trade tensions are having on the Eurozone economy.
Unless the trade data surprises to the upside the mood towards the euro is likely to remain bearish.
US dollar vulnerable to weakening consumer confidence
The strength of USD exchange rates was limited as July’s US industrial and manufacturing production figures showed a contraction on the month.
USD exchange rates may come under additional pressure this afternoon as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to show a decline on the month.
Evidence that US consumers are becoming less optimistic in the face of ongoing trade tensions could push the US dollar lower across the board.
Brexit speculation to drive GBP
The pound may struggle to extend its uptrend today thanks to the absence of any fresh UK data.
While the latest retail sales figures demonstrated a sustained level of consumer spending worries over the economic outlook remain.
Political developments could also weigh on GBP exchange rates as MPs continue their efforts to avoid the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.
As long as the odds of a no-deal scenario remain heightened the potential for further pound gains looks limited.
Upcoming Data:
Friday, 16th August 2019
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance
15:00 USD University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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