As geopolitical tensions between the East and West rise, sanctions and souring relations could have lasting impacts on business globally.
- Political uncertainty continues to drive pound weakness
- Euro slips as German inflation disappoints
- Improved business confidence shores up Canadian dollar
Pound vulnerable to disappointing consumer credit reading
A sense of political anxiety continued weighing on the pound even as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn pledged to ‘politically stop’ Boris Johnson’s plan to prorogue parliament.
GBP exchange rates may struggle to recover any particular ground until MPs return from their summer recess next week.
However, the mood towards the pound could deteriorate further if July’s consumer credit data shows a decline in borrowing.
Fresh evidence of weakening confidence within the UK economy would expose GBP exchange rates to additional downside pressure.
Easing Eurozone inflation forecast to drag on euro
As the German consumer price index proved weaker-than-forecast yesterday the euro edged lower across the board.
Weakening inflationary pressure within the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy is likely to give the European Central Bank (ECB) greater incentive to cut interest rates in September.
A similarly weak showing from the corresponding Eurozone consumer price index could see EUR exchange rates extend their downtrend today.
As long as inflation fails to move towards the ECB’s 2% target, support for the single currency is likely to prove limited.
Strengthening business confidence boosts Canadian dollar
An improvement in the CFIB business barometer helped the Canadian dollar gain ground on Thursday.
With business confidence picking up in August investors saw greater cause for optimism in the economic outlook.
Even so, CAD exchange rates could come under pressure this afternoon if the latest Canadian gross domestic product figures prove underwhelming.
Evidence of weakening economic growth would give investors greater incentive to sell out of the risk-sensitive Canadian dollar
Friday, 30th August 2019
09:30 GBP Consumer Credit
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index
13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product
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