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US unemployment to strike new 17-year low?

business-articlesUS unemployment to strike new 17-year low?
  • UK trade deficit may narrow
  • CAD may strengthen on employment data
  • US payroll figures in focus
UK trade figures may lift GBP

The pound may move higher this morning as the ONS publishes the UK’s latest trade balance figures.

Economists predict the UK’s deficit in goods and services will have narrowed in January, with the trade gap expected to drop from a 15-month high of -£4.8bn to -£3.8bn.

The accompanying industrial production figures may also prove to be supportive of the pound today as current forecasts suggest that factory output growth will have rallied from -1.3% to 1.5% over the same period.

Employment growth to rebound in Canada?

Canada will release its latest employment figures this afternoon, with CAD investors hopeful that a rebound in employment will help to strengthen the Canadian Dollar.

Analysts are confident that employment will have risen by 20,000 in February, helping to partially reverse the sharp fall seen in January as many seasonal contracts came to an end.

However economists suggest that the rise in employment is unlikely to prompt a move in the unemployment rate, which is expected to hold at 5.9% after rising from 5.8% at the start of the year.

US unemployment expected to fall to new 17-year low

The US will also publish its latest labour data later today, with the release of February’s non-farm payroll figures.

Economists forecast that today’s data will show that payroll rose by 200,000 last month, with the private sector hiring roughly the same number of workers it did in January. 

However after a stronger-than-expected rise in the ADP employment report earlier in the week, investors may be hoping for a least some growth in payrolls last month.

Possibly even more important will be the accompanying unemployment data, which is expected to reveal the US jobless rate fell to a new 17-year low of 4% last month.

The uptick in employment may also drive speculation that the Federal Reserve will deliver up to four rate hikes this year as well, on suggestions that low unemployment will help to bolster wage growth. 

Upcoming Data

Friday, 9 March, 2018
09:30                     GBP Trade Balance
13:30                     CAD Unemployment Rate
13:30                     USD Non-Farm Payrolls
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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