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US retail sales to recover as consumer confidence surges?

business-articlesUS retail sales to recover as consumer confidence surges?
  • Eurozone factory output expected to slide
  • USD may advance as retail sales rise
  • RBA to releases latest economic summary
EUR may slide as industrial production falters

The euro is poised to tumble this morning following the release of the Eurozone’s latest industrial production figures.

Economists forecast factory output will have slumped by -0.4% in January, after rising 0.4% at the end of last year.

This will follow on from Germany’s disappointing production figures last week, which showed that output unexpectedly contracted at the start of the year.

If the figures fall in line with expectations this will bring an end to three months of consecutive growth and will leave production well below the long term average of 0.1%.

US retail sales to rebound?

The US dollar may look to push higher this afternoon as markets expect sentiment towards the US currency to be bolstered by the latest US retail sales figures.

Analysts currently forecast that sales growth will reach 0.3% in February, helping to reverse the -0.3% contraction in January, which saw sales experience their largest decline in eleven months.

This optimism over a rebound in sales is supported by some upbeat consumer sentiment indicators in February, which would suggest that households were more confident in spending last month.

However some investors are likely to remain wary, fearing that last month’s subdued wage growth figures could have had a negative impact on sales.

Dovish RBA bulletin may drag on AUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will publish its latest bulletin overnight on Wednesday, with analysts suggesting that it may pressure the Australian dollar.

The bulletin will provide a summary of economic activity over the last quarter as well as outlining the RBA’s plans for monetary policy in the coming months.

With the RBA striking a fairly dovish tone in its last few policy meetings, markets are expecting that the bank will maintain its cautious outlook in its March bulletin, further denting the chances of the RBA implementing a rate hike in the foreseeable future.

Upcoming Data

Wednesday, 14 March, 2018

10:00                     EUR Industrial Production
12:30                     USD Retail Sales

Thursday, 15 March, 2018

00:30                     AUD RBA Bulletin
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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