As geopolitical tensions between the East and West rise, sanctions and souring relations could have lasting impacts on business globally.
- Pound slumps thanks to UK service sector decline
- German manufacturing uptick fails to benefit euro
- Solid PMIs support US dollar
Retail sales improvement could bolster GBP
GBP exchange rates tumbled ahead of the weekend thanks to a surprise contraction in November’s UK services PMI.
The PMI dipped from 50.0 to 48.6, casting a fresh shadow over the outlook of the UK economy and raising the risk of a fourth quarter growth contraction.
However, the mood towards the pound could improve this morning if the CBI reported retail sales index shows an improvement on the month.
Evidence of resilient consumer spending in the face of ongoing economic and political uncertainty could help to ease worries over the growth outlook, shoring up GBP exchange rates.
Euro rally forecast on signs of stronger German business confidence
The euro traded statically on Friday despite the German manufacturing PMI bettering forecasts in November.
While the modest uptick from 42.1 to 43.8 suggests that the sector’s decline is bottoming out, this still points towards a weak fourth quarter of economic activity.
EUR exchange rates may find a rallying point on the back of the German IFO Business climate index, however, if German businesses signal a greater level of confidence.
US dollar bolstered by manufacturing and services data
The US economy showed fresh evidence of shaking off ongoing trade tensions with China as both the manufacturing and services PMIs picked up on Friday.
Lingering worries over the potential for a renewed deterioration in relations between the US and China also helped shore up the US dollar thanks to a decline in risk appetite.
However, another negative reading from the Chicago Fed national activity index could put a dampener on the US dollar this afternoon.
Monday, 25th November 2019
09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Index
11:00 GBP CBI Reported Retail Sales
13:30 CAD Wholesale Trade Sales
13:30 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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