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UK Sales Rally in March due to cold weather?

business-articlesUK Sales Rally in March due to cold weather?
  • Eurozone Business Confidence Expected to Slide
  • Will UK retail activity rebound?
  • Fed speeches may lift USD
Eurozone business sentiment could slide

The euro may find itself trending lower during the European session this morning following the release of the Eurozone’s latest business confidence figures.

Markets are bracing for a possible fall in confidence this morning, amidst forecasts that the latest business sentiment index will have tumbled from 1.48 to 1.39 in March, striking its lowest levels since September.

The expected fall comes as Eurozone growth appears to continue to moderate in the first quarter of 2018, with analysts suggesting that this will translate to a more pessimistic outlook from firms.

UK retail activity expected to rally

The Confederation of British Industry is set to publish its latest retail figures this morning, with the pound likely strengthening if they rally as forecast.

Analysts expect March’s distributive trades index will have climbed from 8 to 11, suggesting UK retailers are enjoying an uptick in activity this month.

This will match suggestions in February’s survey that suppliers expected orders to pick up slightly this month, while a possible rebound in clothing sales due to the unseasonably cold weather may also have helped.

However economists warn that the index may still show limited movement as Brexit uncertainty and concerns over employment constraints will likely have continued to weigh on the outlook from some retailers.

German consumer pessimism to rise?

The EUR exchange rate may also find itself on the back foot at the start of Wednesday’s session as well thanks to increased pessimism among households in Germany.

Economists currently forecast Wednesday’s data will reveal that that Germany’s consumer confidence index will have slid from 10.8 to 10.7 for the coming months.

April’s expected drop would leave the index at its lowest levels so far in 2018, although still well ahead of the long-term average of 5.9.

The previous month’s decline was largely attributed to concerns over US trade policy, the escalation of which is unlikely to have lent much support to April’s reading.

Upcoming Data 

Tuesday, 27 March, 2018
10:00                     EUR Business Confidence
11:00                     GBP CBI distributive trades

Wednesday, 28 March, 2018
07:00                     EUR German Consumer Confidence
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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