As geopolitical tensions between the East and West rise, sanctions and souring relations could have lasting impacts on business globally.
- UK manufacturing activity expected to slow
- EUR may slide on latest Eurozone PMI figures
- Uptick in retail sales may buoy AUD
The UK’s latest manufacturing PMI will be published later this morning, with markets bracing for a likely fall in the pound following their release.
Economists forecast that the latest figures will see activity in the UK’s manufacturing sector slow for the fourth consecutive month, with the index expected to slump from 55.2 to 54.7 in March.
The slide will likely have been in part driven by the cold snap at the start of the month, with the snow prompting significant disruption across all parts of the UK economy.
Analysts also suggest that the construction and services PMI released later this week are likely to be equally gloomy, with today’s data likely to kick off concerns that a subdued private sector will have dragged on UK growth in the first quarter.
Eurozone also to confirm slowdown in factory activity?
The Eurozone will also publish an update on its manufacturing sector this morning.
IHS Markit will release March’s final reading of the Eurozone factory PMI today, which is expected to confirm that the index dropped sharply from 58.6 to 56.6.
With economists suggesting that the Eurozone’s growth is likely to level out this year after peaking at the end of 2017, any confirmation the manufacturing sector saw a substantial slowdown in March will likely lend support to this theory and lead to losses for the euro.
AUD poised to rise on robust retail sales figures
The Australian dollar may punch higher in overnight trade on Wednesday as Australia publishes its latest retail sales figures.
Current expectations suggest that domestic sales growth will have ticked up from 0.1% to 0.4% in February.
With consumer spending accounting for a significant slice of Australia’s domestic growth the more robust sales figures are likely as a welcome relief to AUD investors following a sharp decline in December and subdued rebound in January.
However investors are likely to remain wary of any lacklustre results in February, with another miss likely to dent the ‘Aussie’ on fears it could prompt a dovish response from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Tuesday, 3 April, 2018
09:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday, 4 April, 2018
02:30 AUD Retail Sales
Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure
Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)