As geopolitical tensions between the East and West rise, sanctions and souring relations could have lasting impacts on business globally.
- Manufacturing index uptick could boost US dollar
- Bank of Canada survey set to weigh on Canadian dollar
- Pound struggles to shake off Brexit uncertainty
Friday’s surprise dip in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index left the US dollar on a weaker footing against its rivals, especially in the face of increased market risk appetite.
However, USD exchange rates could find a rallying point this afternoon as forecasts point towards a solid uptick in April’s Empire Manufacturing Index.
If the manufacturing sector shows fresh signs of resilience this could encourage a greater sense of confidence in the health of the US economy.
As long as trade tensions between the US and the EU continue to mount this may also offer a boost to the US dollar.
Canadian dollar vulnerable ahead of business outlook survey
The mood towards the Canadian dollar could sour once again this afternoon if the Bank of Canada (BoC) business outlook survey proves dovish in nature.
Signs of increasing caution within the Canadian economy would leave CAD exchange rates exposed to fresh selling pressure.
A less confident assessment of the economic outlook may raise the odds of the BoC making a further shift towards monetary loosening in the months ahead.
On the other hand, evidence of optimism among businesses could encourage the Canadian dollar to make fresh gains.
Brexit uncertainty set to keep pound under pressure
Speculation over Brexit looks set to drive demand for the pound for the foreseeable future, even now that the exit deadline has been pushed back to the end of October.
If markets see signs that the Labour leadership and Theresa May are moving closer to a compromise on Brexit this could offer GBP exchange rates a boost.
As long as a sense of uncertainty looks set to hang over the UK economy in the months ahead, though, investors may struggle to find significant incentive to buy into the pound.
Any fresh political disruption could easily see GBP exchange rates shedding fresh ground in the near term.