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Quiet data day expected to leave markets at the whim of US-China trade negotiations

business-articlesQuiet data day expected to leave markets at the whim of US-China trade negotiations
  • German Trade Balance
  • US-China Trade Negotiations and US Consumer Inflation Expectations
  • UK Halifax House Prices
EUR – German trade balance in focus

There are slim pickings today in terms of notable domestic data releases, but markets will be keeping a keen eye on Germany’s February trade balance reading, especially with last week’s run of German ecostats proving poorer than expected.

With global trade anxieties putting a dent in German factory orders and signs of a sharp fall in industrial production in February, it is possible that a poor trade surplus reading could further limit the Euro.

For the most part, however, markets will be waiting for Wednesday’s US consumer price inflation results before making any big moves with the Euro, as it could prompt movement in the markets.

USD – US-China trade negotiations still a significant mover

For the United States, markets will mostly be focusing on soundbites relating to US-China trade negotiations today, with signs of agreement liable to give the ‘Greenback’ a shot in the arm and signs of escalation liable to keep it under pressure.

There is, of course, the possibility that the US will drop its tariff threats, but this is entirely dependent on China addressing their alleged usage of US intellectual property and lowering their barriers of trade.

Beyond this, the US consumer inflation expectations reading will be released today, providing a small insight perhaps for what we can expect on Wednesday when the official US consumer price inflation readings are released.

GBP – UK house prices and the BoE

There’s very little happening in terms of UK data today, but markets will be keeping an eye on house prices as per usual, with some analysts concerned that ongoing hawkish policy moves from the Bank of England (BoE) could eventually push the housing slowdown into a housing crash.

Looking further ahead, markets will be keen to assess Wednesday’s run of readings which will include the UK’s industrial production, manufacturing production and construction output, as well as the UK’s balance of trade and the NIESR GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2018.

These looming results could keep GBP bearish against the majors in the meantime. 

Upcoming Data

Monday April 9th

06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (February)
07:30 GBP Halifax House Prices (March)
12:15 CAD Canadian Housing Starts (March)
16:00 USD Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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