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Pound edges higher despite Brexit divorce bill and Irish border issues

business-articlesPound edges higher despite Brexit divorce bill and Irish border issues
Pound edges higher despite Brexit divorce bill and Irish border issues
  • May has less than a week to make the EU an offer
  • OECD forecast in focus
  • Canadian dollar dips as oil prices fall
Sterling holds 8-week high vs. US dollar

With little on the UK economic calendar to inspire much activity this week, Brexit remains in the spotlight.
Officials from the European Union have now told Prime Minister Theresa May that she must submit a complete Brexit divorce offer – incorporating both the exit payment and plans for the rights of EU citizens – by 4th December.

Persistent rumours that the PM is set to double her initial offer for the exit payment meant that Sterling managed to eke out modest gains against the majors (advancing to an 8-week high against the US dollar) despite speculation that Ireland could be on the verge of a potentially disruptive election.

OECD set to release economic outlook, German sentiment data ahead

German coalition news failed to send the euro higher against the pound or US dollar on Monday, but the common currency could be set for gains today.

As the German GfK consumer confidence index for December is expected to hold steady at 10.7, it’s unlikely to have much of an impact on EUR exchange rates.

However, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is also due to publish its economic outlook for the Eurozone.

Given the recent run of upbeat reports from the currency bloc, the OECD outlook may be fairly positive. If that proves to be the case, the euro could advance on hopes the European Central Bank (ECB) may have to revise it’s currently fairly dovish stance on monetary policy.

GBP/CAD hits multi-week highs  

The GBP/CAD exchange rate was able to rally to its best levels of November during the European session as sliding oil prices and Bank of Canada (BoC) speculation weighed on the Canadian dollar.

The price of oil (Canada’s most lucrative commodity) fell -1%, dropping from its recent two-year high.

Whether or not GBP/CAD extends gains depends on the tone adopted by BoC Governor Stephen Poloz later today. If he hints that the central bank is likely to increase interest rates in 2018, the Canadian dollar will climb, while a cautious approach would be CAD-negative.

Upcoming Data
Tuesday, 28 November, 2017

10:00             EUR OECD Economic Outlook    
12:00             EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence (DEC)      
13:30             US Advance Goods Trade Balance (OCT)
15:00             US Consumer Confidence Index (NOV)
15:30             CAD Bank of Canada Releases Financial System Review
 
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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