As geopolitical tensions between the East and West rise, sanctions and souring relations could have lasting impacts on business globally.
- Pound slides, Parliament set for five-week suspension
- Steady German confidence benefits euro
- US dollar shrugs off fears of potential recession
Proroguing of Parliament set to dominate pound outlook
The pound fell sharply out of favour as Boris Johnson moved to suspend Parliament for five weeks.
This proroguing of Parliament until mid-October significantly increases the risk of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.
Political anxiety is likely to keep GBP exchange rates under pressure today as MPs respond to this development.
Euro braced for weaker German inflation
A steady reading from the German GfK consumer confidence index helped to shore up the euro yesterday.
However, the mood towards the single currency could sour this afternoon with the release of August’s German consumer price index data.
As forecasts point towards the inflation rate easing from 1.7% to 1.5% on the year this could offer the European Central Bank (ECB) fresh incentive to cut interest rates.
Although the ECB is already widely expected to loosen monetary policy at its September meeting evidence of weakening inflation could still put pressure on EUR exchange rates.
Fears of recession fail to weigh on US dollar
As the US bond yield curve remained inverted markets are still wary of the prospect of a potential US recession.
Even so, this anxiety was not enough to prevent USD exchange rates gaining ground in the face of market risk aversion.
Demand for the US dollar could weaken today, though, as markets expect to see a widening of the advance goods trade deficit.
Fresh signs that ongoing US-China trade tensions are weighing on domestic activity and limiting spending could knock USD exchange rates off their positive footing.
Thursday, 29th August 2019
13:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index
13:30 USD Advance Goods Trade Balance
Currencies Direct is one of Europe's leading non-bank providers of currency exchange and international payment services. Since we were formed in 1996, we've maintained our focus on providing innovative foreign exchange and international currency transfer services to corporations of all sizes, online sellers and private individuals. We have also expanded our services to provide dynamic and pioneering "business to business" solutions to help companies, tier 2/3 banks and other non-bank financial institutions to process their international payments. Our headquarters are in the City of London (United Kingdom) and we have operations in continental Europe, Africa, Asia, and the United States. Currencies Direct is jointly owned by private equity firms Palamon Capital Partners and Corsair Capital.