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How will the pound react to UK inflation data?

business-articlesHow will the pound react to UK inflation data?
  • Quiet start to the week, UK inflation data ahead
  • Eurozone confidence figures in focus
  • Will US services data support a June rate hike?
Sterling slipping before UK CPI report

The pound kicked off a new week of trading by dipping against the US, Australian and Canadian dollars.

With little pound-moving data on the cards today, GBP may struggle to exert itself ahead of tomorrow’s speech from Bank of England (BoE) officials and Wednesday’s UK inflation report.

The inflation stats are expected to show a slight easing in year-on-year consumer price pressures. As such a result would support the BoE’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, the pound may weaken tomorrow if the figures come in as forecast. 

Rising Eurozone confidence may lift EUR

Mixed data from the Eurozone and rising concerns over the implications of a Eurosceptic Italian government put pressure on the euro last week, limiting GBP/EUR losses.

The bulk of the week’s Eurozone news is set for publication in the latter half of the week, including Wednesday’s PMI reports and consumer confidence data. The common currency could tick higher if the PMIs show an improvement in manufacturing and services output and the confidence report details rising sentiment.

Will the prospect of a June rate hike keep supporting USD?

An easing in US/China trade tensions and bets that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates next month are helping the US dollar maintain its recent uptrend.

As long as this week’s US data – including Wednesday’s manufacturing and services PMIs – keep hopes for a rate hike alive, the US dollar’s resilience is likely to continue for the near-term. 

Upcoming Data

Monday, 21st May 2018

04:00 NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)  

Tuesday, 22nd May 2018

09:15 GBP BOE's Carney, Ramsden, Saunders, Vlieghe Speak in London
09:30 GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR)
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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