As geopolitical tensions between the East and West rise, sanctions and souring relations could have lasting impacts on business globally.
- Uptick in UK manufacturing PMI likely to push GBP higher
- Robust factory activity may support CAD
- Markets forecast US manufacturing sector will slow
The pound may rise this morning as the UK receives its latest update on the state of its manufacturing sector.
IHS Markit is expected to report today that the UK’s Manufacturing PMI ticked up from 56.3 to 56.5 at the start of this year.
Such a reading would indicate a robust start to the year for the UK’s manufacturers and will prompt hopes that the factory sector will enjoy further growth in 2018.
Should the index see a similar slide to December, when it fell from a 51-month high of 58.2, then the pound is likely to tumble.
Uptick in Canadian GDP likely to strengthen CAD
Canada will also publish its latest manufacturing PMI today, with the Canadian Dollar likely to strengthen if it performs as expected.
Economists forecast that the factory sector will have expanded a little faster in January, with the index predicted to climb from 54.7 to 54.8.
This would be the fourth consecutive rise in activity for the sector and would likely be on the back of increased activity in oil production as Brent crude prices hold close to $70 a barrel.
However the index could disappoint this month if concerns over NAFTA drag on the index. The outlook from manufacturers is likely to become more downbeat if it looks increasingly likely that Trump will pull the US out of the agreement.
Slowing manufacturing growth may weaken USD
Lastly, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the latest US manufacturing PMI later this afternoon, with an expected dip in factory activity likely to pressure the US dollar.
Economists forecast that the index will have slipped back from 59.7 to 58.8 this month as the sector undergoes some correction after a particularly strong December.
However today’s figures could beat expectations given the robust US employment figures published on Wednesday.
Should a healthy number of these new jobs have been created in the manufacturing sector it may lead to a stronger than expected read, especially as weak job creation was a limiting factor on last month’s index.
Thursday, 1 February, 2018
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
14:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure
Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)