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Euro could climb if Eurozone unemployment improves, US job openings to rise

business-articlesEuro could climb if Eurozone unemployment improves, US job openings to rise
  • Eurozone unemployment forecast to fall
  • US job openings expected to rise
  • US economic optimism likely to rise
Eurozone employment expected to continue to improve

The euro is likely to advance later this morning as the Eurozone publishes its latest employment figures.

Economists forecast that the recent downtrend in unemployment will have continued in November, with the jobless rate predicted to have fallen from 8.8% to 8.7%.

Should unemployment have fallen in line with expectations, the jobless rate across the bloc will have fallen by 1% year-on-year.

This underpins the dramatic growth seen across the Eurozone in 2017 as the bloc enjoys its best performance in nearly a decade.

However, possibly taking the wind out of the euro’s sails will be doubts over whether the employment report will impact the European Central Bank’s (ECB) outlook for 2018, with the figures unlikely to prompt the bank to speed up its plans for monetary tightening.

US job openings predicted to lift USD

This week’s recovery in the US dollar may be further extended today with the expectation that job openings in the US will have climbed in November.

Analysts predict that the latest JOLT figures will show that the number of job openings in the US will have edged up from 5.996m to 6.038m in November.

This will help reverse the decline seen in October and will support suggestions that the US economy continued to expand at a healthy pace at the tail end of 2017.

Such a reading would also place figures close to the record high of 6.117m struck in September.

US economic optimism forecast to have risen

The US dollar may find further support on Tuesday as the US also publishes its latest economic optimism figures.

The sentiment index is forecast to have climbed from 51.9 to 52.3 in January, holding well clear of the long-term average of 49.26.

Should the reading match expectations, this will continue the index’s longest stretch in positive territory in over a decade.

Optimism in January is also likely to be significantly influenced by the recent passing of Trump’s long awaited tax reform bill and should offer a good indication of whether American’s believe they will have a positive impact on their economic future.
 
Investors are likely to voice some concerns if a downbeat reception to the tax reforms causes the the index’s six-month economic outlook to continue its recent downtrend.

Upcoming Data

Tuesday, 9 January, 2018
10:00               EUR Unemployment Rate
15:00               USD JOLTs Job Openings
15:00               USD Economic Optimism
 
 
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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