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EUR poised to rise on trade figures, NY manufacturing index to rise

business-articlesEUR poised to rise on trade figures, NY manufacturing index to rise
  • Eurozone trade surplus forecast the surge
  • US manufacturing index to strengthen
  • Uptrend in Canadian housing market likely to continue
Eurozone trade balance expected to jump

The euro may deliver some strong gains this morning as the Eurozone publishes its latest trade balance figures.

Economists forecast that the figures will show that the bloc’s trade surplus surged from €18.9bn €28.2bn in November.

Should the trade balance rise in line with expectations it would strike its best levels since March, while also holding well above the long-term average of €5.3bn.

The rise would likely be supported by a strong reading from Germany, with that country’s latest trade balance also revealing that consumption of EU goods rose at a robust pace in November.

However, the euro could be forced to retreat should the Eurozone trade figures fail to live up to expectations.

US manufacturing forecast to tick higher

The US dollar may find some support later this afternoon with the publication of the latest US NY Empire State manufacturing index.

The Index is expected to show manufacturing activity in New York State ticked slightly higher this month.

The data should further help to highlight the burgeoning strength of the US economy in recent months.

The previous reading revealed, however, new hirings were down at the end of 2018, and a continuation of this trend could possibly dent any potential gains for USD.

Possible uptick in existing home sales to bolster CAD

The Canadian dollar may also advance today following the release of the latest domestic existing home sales figures later this afternoon.

Analysts are hoping for another strong rise in December after figures rose by a robust 3.9% in November.

Another uptick for last month would be the fifth consecutive rise in sales in Canada’s housing market, suggesting the market heated up in the second half of 2017.

Unless sales climbed sharply in December, fourth quarter sales last year are still likely to have lagged behind sales in 2016, possibly limiting the Canadian Dollar’s gains.

This may be one of the last upticks in sales for some time as the Canadian Real Estate Association forecasts the stricter mortgage rules being introduced in 2018 could hurt sales going forward.

Upcoming Data

Monday, 15 January, 2018
10:00                     EUR Eurozone Trade Balance
13:30                     USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
14:00                     CAD Existing Homes Sales
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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