As geopolitical tensions between the East and West rise, sanctions and souring relations could have lasting impacts on business globally.
- BoE decision weighs on pound
- Canadian dollar weakens thanks to wage growth slowdown
- Disappointing manufacturing performance dents US dollar
Pound extends decline
GBP exchange rates extended their downtrend on the back of the Bank of England’s (BoE) December policy announcement, even though interest rates remained on hold.
As two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favour of an immediate interest rate cut this saw the odds of a 2020 move increase, dragging the pound lower across the board.
This morning’s public sector net borrowing figure could add to the bearishness of GBP exchange rates if it shows another solid uptick in new government debt.
With anxiety over the outlook of the UK economy lingering another sharp increase in government borrowing could give investors fresh incentive to sell out of the pound.
Stronger retail sales forecast to offer Canadian dollar support
October’s average weekly earnings data weighed heavily on the Canadian dollar as wage growth eased from 4.0% to 3.3%.
This slowdown could encourage the Bank of Canada (BOC) to take a more dovish outlook in the months ahead, raising the risk of a potential interest rate cut.
However, the mood towards the Canadian dollar could recover this afternoon as forecasts point towards a solid monthly uptick in retail sales.
US dollar falters after manufacturing data
Support for the US dollar faltered yesterday after the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index slumped from 10.4 to 0.3 in December.
As this decline offered further evidence of weakness within the US manufacturing sector USD exchange rates were exposed to fresh selling pressure.
With markets wary of the potential for a weaker fourth quarter performance from the world’s largest economy the appeal of the US dollar naturally diminished.
Even if the final annualised third quarter gross domestic product report is unrevised USD exchange rates may struggle to find any renewed traction today.
Friday, 20th December 2019
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
13:30 USD Annualised Gross Domestic Product
Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure
Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)