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BoE policymaker speeches at the forefront today

business-articlesBoE policymaker speeches at the forefront today
  • GBP: Outlook mixed – BoE speeches and public sector borrowing figures imminent
  • EUR: Outlook poor – Italian election coalition dominates headlines
  • USD: Outlook PositiveUS-China trade relations improve
Pound (GBP) volatility likely on BoE policymaker sentiment

Sterling could encounter volatility today on the words and sentiments of Bank of England (BoE) policymakers Dave Ramsden, Michael Saunders, Gertjan Vlieghe and bank Governor Mark Carney.

Mr Carney might opt to play things safe in his speech, especially after enduring a bruising last month with his own forward guidance on interest rate trajectory being repeatedly questioned.

The other policymakers, however, are all regarded as outright hawkish - and if they do reveal optimistic sentiment on monetary policy it could give the pound a shot in the arm.

Beyond this, the UK’s public sector net borrowing results could prompt some movement, as could the general condition of the US dollar and indeed progress (or a lack thereof) on the Brexit negotiation front.

Italian Eurosceptic leadership expected to spook EUR investors

Lacking notable ecostats, the investor spotlight for the euro will likely remain on the political situation in Italy, with the leading Five-Star Movement and Lega seeking the backing of the President for their chosen Prime Minister to lead.

Eleven weeks after the inconclusive election the two parties, previously rivals, are now poised to achieve coalition leadership, a prospect that has unnerved investors because of apparent plans to call for billions of euros in tax cuts and massive spending on welfare for the poor.

This outlook could push many investors to flee to ‘safer’ currencies, thus reducing the value of the euro.

US, China put trade war ‘on hold’ – USD outlook brightens

The US dollar could extend its rally today, with investors set to continue digesting news that the trade talks between the two nations have grown increasingly positive.

Yesterday it was revealed that China has agreed to better support US employment and growth by protecting intellectual property rights and expanding trade.

This should also ease investor concerns that China might engage in retaliatory sanctions, thus shifting the market spotlight back to hawkish optimism for the US Federal Reserve.

US President Donald Trump tweeted:

‘Under our potential deal with China, they will purchase from our Great American Farmers practically as much as our Farmers can produce’.
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09:15 GBP – BoE Policymaker Speeches
09:30 GBP – UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (April)
11:00 GBP – UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)
15:00 USD – US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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